Source: Moskowitz, Dan. "Overview of VelocityShares TVIX | Investopedia."Investopedia. Investopedia, 13 Apr. 2015. Web. 11 July 2016.
If anymore of the EU's big supporters drop out, the probability that the EU falls apart completely rises dramatically. That's why your eye as an investor should be on the Netherlands, Germany, Spain, and France; as they are the four biggest constituents of the Euro Zone, each with proportionately distributed fee's / immigrants / risk, all three of which are discussed in the Brexit Prediction Blog .
(JB3 Investments first online blog post, 6/20/2016).
I've come to multiple conclusions after consulting the reputable European data set, the "STANDARD EUROBAROMETER 77 PUBLIC OPINION IN THE EU – SPRING 2012 ". (available online with free download). Irrefutable Connections show a very similar political/social situation in the UK in 2016, based on trend's reflected in data from 2012. These same trends appear to be influential in Germany, the Netherlands, Spain, and France.
Based on 2012 public sentiment, and data made available in hindsight, Spain and the Netherlands are decidedly more likely than France or Germany to leave the European Union.
Euro Barometer Link
Per predictions made in our last post, the initially high levels of market volatility the Brexit forced upon the UK economy have seen significant short term decreases. This is due to Investors calming considerably from the Brexit referendum of June 24th. This increase/decrease in volatility reflects strongly upon the highly elastic relationship between investor's market sentiment and the price level of the $VIX.
On 6/24 the S&P500 VIX saw a 49% Increase; only to lose more than they had gained over the course of the following week.
This suggests the Brexit was an economic non-factor to S&P 500 volatility overall, which is a preposterous notion, and the volatility index should still be near the mid $20's.
This is where I disagree. If share prices only reflect the direct (short-term) Brexit implications; than the June 24th global correction may have been an overreaction. However, the long term implications on global trade are not only complex and difficult to predict, but largely unaccounted for by the global economy.
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